Gov. Brad Little’s latest public relations blast may have gotten a “Wow” out of Elon Musk, but we at the Idaho Freedom Foundation are not as impressed. We know more about what the graph, depicting the number of pages of regulation cut throughout the past two decades, truly shows and how it came about. This is not to say that the governor’s and Legislature’s willingness to cut pages of rules from Idaho’s administrative code isn’t admirable.
It's not, however, the coup de gras our governor makes it out to be.
The governor attempted to double down on his message by claiming those rule cuts directly led to economic growth. The surprising truth is the data and graphs his team used show no such correlation and certainly no causation. I’ll save that discussion for later, though. Let’s start with the good news.
So, what do Idahoans want from a conservative governor and Legislature? The simple answer is lower taxes, less government, fewer regulations, and protection of our rights, among others. Let’s look at that third one: fewer regulations. In case you missed it last week, Little posted this graph on social media:
It is an impressive graph, to say the least. We can all appreciate removing thousands of pages from Idaho’s administrative rule book. The graph should make any DOGE hawk proud. (“DOGE” stands for Department of Government Efficiency — a program created by President-elect Donald Trump and championed by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy.) Eliminating restrictive government rules is a great idea and probably does lead to good outcomes for Idaho’s economic growth.
Eat Less Ice Cream to Reduce Crime
Changing the subject for just a moment, did you know the data on ice cream consumption and violent crime is clear and convincing? Whenever ice cream consumption increases, so does violent crime, and vice versa. Must be the hormones they’re injecting into the cows and ending up in your ice cream cones, right?
Of course, we all know this is bogus. More likely, warmer weather and more outside activity means more ice cream and more crime. It’s the classic error in statistics known as “correlation is not causation.” Just because two variables move together (in the same or in opposite directions) does not mean one is causing the other. Every introductory-level statistics student gets pounded with this concept from day one.
Unfortunately, the “correlation is not causation” type-1 error persists. Our governor’s policy team fell for its charms to score a few public relations points on social media.
Eat Fewer Regulations to Improve the Economy
What the governor claimed in his next post was an amazing gaffe of statistical analysis and interpretation. His follow-up was the “correlation/causation” fallacy wrapped up in a zero-correlation argument all at once. Truly bizarre. Let me explain.
Here’s the graph and post we got from the governor:
Not only does the causation claim not make sense, but there is virtually no correlation between these two things! Economic production — the yellow line — is pretty much always going up (that’s economic growth). It’s going up as pages of rules increase, it’s going up when pages are decreasing, and it’s going up when pages are constant. There is no correlation between changes in pages and changes in Idaho’s GDP.
So, if correlation doesn’t imply causation, what does “no correlation” mean? It certainly can’t mean that changing X means more of Y. It’s just a nonsensical claim — but that’s what the governor and his team said, nonetheless.
In fact, the governor’s correlation graph and comment are the equivalent of saying, “Since we reduced the rules, the earth has kept spinning.” That’s an obvious fact, but it doesn’t mean fewer rules make the world go round. As Idaho’s population grows, businesses develop, and more federal dollars (borrowed or not, they count) flow into Idaho, we see economic growth.
Let’s not state nor overstate the “pages of rules” as Idaho’s chief economic driver.
How About Some Real Conservatism?
IFF won’t throw water on reducing administrative rules; let’s keep the trend going for sure. The practice certainly adds to government efficiency and transparency. That said, more impactful regulatory reform comes from changing Idaho laws, such as removing occupational licensing requirements, reducing zoning and permitting restrictions, increasing personal liberties, and easing taxes on income and property. All of those mean good things for Idaho, and prosperity undoubtedly follows.
While we’re at it, let’s check off a few of those other conservative values mentioned at the top. If the governor wants to tout some conservative credentials, he should start by reversing the outrageous government spending trend, which has led to a 55% increase in state spending over the last five years.
Here’s a graph showing pages of rules along with Idaho government spending:
To be clear, this graph demonstrates nothing about correlation; it’s just a look at both. The graph shows that the state budget almost always increases, except when economic recessions reduce tax collections and force the governor and Legislature to cut spending, as in 2011. Since Idaho began to "deregulate" in 2019, our statewide budget continued upward and, indeed, has nearly doubled.
If we truly want to see Idahoans thrive, we should stop taxing and spending so carelessly. Any conservative governor would want to make the budget graph (red) look similar to the pages of the rules graph (blue). Let’s put that cliff on both lines, shall we?
What Does Fewer Pages Mean?
Finally, at the risk of sounding over-skeptical, let’s look at what Little’s graph showing the massive reduction of pages of rules might actually mean. Sure, it saves on paper, but does it truly do much for the ordinary Idahoan?
There are a few ways to cut pages of rules from the code: fewer actual rules, elimination of outdated and unnecessary rules, removal of duplicative rules, simplification of rules language, and doing more incorporation-by-reference to federal rules. Only the first one really means reducing burdens on Idahoans and Idaho businesses.
The administrative code, where all these rules are found, is a compilation of all the guidelines Idaho government agencies follow in carrying out their duties and enforcing the statutes (in Idaho law) they are supposed to execute. Laws are the true regulations, and the administrative code is simply the rulebook for Idaho’s executive branch.
The scope of the administrative code certainly impacts how Idaho laws are applied and potentially affects Idaho citizens. So, yes, reducing these rules can and should help Idahoans — unless those reductions are merely cosmetic.
The dramatic decline of administrative rules began in 2019, but it wasn’t the governor’s initiative. It was the Legislature that refused to pass the omnibus rules renewal bill, which automatically carries over the rules from the prior year, as was Idaho’s custom. Essentially, the Legislature forced a zero-based rules process onto all government agencies. Those agencies were forced to reconsider and propose anew all their revised and reduced rules in the interim and following years.
This new zero-base rules-making practice has continued, and that’s why we see the trend line going downward or remaining constant every year since.
What’s not clear from the governor’s self-promotion post on social media is what, if any, meaningful rules were eliminated. Was it truly a reduction of the shackles on Idahoans, or was it more like a clean-up and streamlining of language or deference to federal laws? We invite the governor’s office to list just a few of the impactful rules he claims to have eliminated. Not many Idahoans may even be aware of the reduction in pages of administrative rules.
My experience as a career economist tells me that economic growth will not only continue but increase when we truly reduce regulatory impediments (that means changing both the administrative rules and regulatory laws), reduce government spending, and relieve Idahoans’ onerous tax burdens. The economic growth would be amazing, but the world probably wouldn’t spin any faster.
